RE: Reasons for Risk Workshops failing to deliver accurate quantitative information
From:Larry Cosgrove
Date:November 27, 2008
To: Gavin Lawrence
Group:Catastrophe Risk Modeling Group
Status:Pending
Gavin

I suspect that many of your comments are dead on. I do know that the "people translation" to those not familiar with numerical modeling and statistics is the critical issue here. If you know information to be incorrect, it is best to stand up and make the point. Remember that to those making decisions, sometimes the terminology (especially acronyms) and methodology can prove to be very boring when placed in an open discussion.

In weather prediction methods, I find it best to act as the "translator" while doing my best to overcome the perceived "risk of ridicule". For instance, if the numerical models point to a cold period and vendor forecasts are far warmer and/or calmer, I always provide pictorial proof of what I am describing.

So if I were to give advice for increasing the value or a risk workshop, I would offer these suggestions:

1) Keep the discussion lively; use expressions to go along with the data and engage questions or comments after your initial arguments

2) Graphics that exclaim will do the job far better than charts that induce sleep

3) Always end with a firm conclusion, not a nebulous correlation

Best Regards,
Larry Cosgrove
Chief Meteorologist at Avant Capital Management/Irish Exchange LP
Owner at WEATHERAmerica
Chief Meteorologist at WWJM-FM

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