From: Matthew Leitch [mailto:m.leitch1@ntlworld.com]
Sent: 11 December 2008 16:08
To: Gavin Lawrence
Subject: Re: [riskanal] Pertaining to Risk based Cost Contingency

An excellent post. In addition to your sample of workshop problems I would add that I find it deeply depressing to see good ideas I have worked out (at considerable personal effort) misquoted on a flipchart, "mixed and mangled into useless oblivion" along with the dross. The quote is from my book, or at least a draft of it.

The tendency towards seeking consensus might be reduced slightly by saying early on that disagreement will be taken as a signal of uncertainty and uncertainties will be noted and responded to, not squeezed out in an attempt to reach agreement. That would go along with trying to get a view from everyone who is informed enough to hold on on an issue. Risk 'ratings' are estimates and some are supported by more evidence than others. Disagreement indicates that the ratings are likely to be flaky and we should think about finding out more.

Prediction markets could be a better way to get the inputs of lots of people on uncertain quantities. I suspect the software already exists and some clever schemes have been worked out so that even if you need lots of probabilities you can still make it work.

Matthew

_________________________________________________

LinkedIn
Date: 12/09/2008

Subject RE: Reasons for Risk Workshops failing to deliver accurate quantitative information

Group: Enterprise Risk Management Association

Rakesh Dighe wrote:

Hi

I have used Risk Workshops for over 12 years in an Oil Company setting. There are some important pre requisites to obtaining a successful outcome e.g.

Prepare a strawman in advance using a Subject Matter Expert
Lay down Big Rules for the workshop
Define clearly the risk scoring criteria
One single person to document output
Not a good idea in some cultures to have the Big Boss present at the workshop as it stifles discussion or aggressively leads it in a certain dominant direction

Rgds

Rakesh
CEO
Risk Quotient

_________________________________________________