LinkedIn
Date: 11/28/2008

Subject RE: Reasons for Risk Workshops failing to deliver accurate quantitative information

Group: Risk Management and Compliance Experts

Roger Miles wrote:

Good blog post - looks like a largely successful trawl for empirical evidence to back the social-behavioural effects modelled by our academic colleagues in Political Science and cognitive psychology. Such real-world manifestations of the effects are sadly familiar but not generally well documented beyond a stack of "anecdotals".

I strongly agree that the absence of cognitive and group-behavioural components from risk assessment (and indeed risk management as a whole... and most particularly from the public-policy end of it) is responsible for much of the markets' current difficulty. In fact I felt strongly enough about this to have spent three years writing it up as a PhD thesis - ironically enough, relating these effects to fragility in the banking system. Hate to have to say to them "I told you so", but...

Interested to hear more about what you plan to do with this.

Regards

Roger

Roger Miles
Risk analysis, Centre for Risk Mgmt.
roger.t.miles@kcl.ac.uk
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